Lord of the flies

He is president of a relatively big European country. He just won the election for his third term, with a vast majority of the votes, i.e. more than 80 percent(!). In theory, the election was fair and open. In theory, the country has political pluralism. In theory, he is strong. In theory, his political power is complete. In theory, he has secured his country through the transformation from a warm space in a Cold War to freezing isolation in an unipolar world. In theory, his people is impressed of his achivements and reforms. In theory, the economic growth of his country is sustainable. In theory.

Still: The allmighty president is hiding. He is not celebrating the victory with his people. He is not even speaking to his people. Is he seriously ill? Is he depressed? Is he on holiday? Is he dead?

Fact: Political parties are not banned, but the heavy media is controlled by the President.
Fact: According to independent, international observers, the electional-campaign, nor the election was fair or open.
Fact: The economic growth, decreasing unemployment-rates and increasing individual wealth are based on under-priced gas from big-brother Russia and "ad-hocish" and non-sustainable industrial reforms.
Fact: Russia is starting to demand something in return for the cheap gas and political legitimation.
Fact: There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Fact: The political pressure on the regime from other countries is hardening.
Fact: The support from countries like Iran and Cuba won´t help much.
Fact: Nobody knows whether he will attend a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to mark the 10th anniversary of the loose union between Russia and Belarus. The Kremlin doesn´t know. The Russian Foreign Ministry doesn´t know. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry, the Presidential Administration and the Belarusian embassies probably know, but won´t tell.
Fact: A diplomat said "I think he's unable to console himself and so he's not being allowed out. His advisers don't know what to do".
Fact: Western governments have refused visas for Mr Lukashenko and are supporting the opposition leaders.
Fact: The main opposition leader, Milinkevich is in Vienna for discussions with the Austrian government, which holds the rotating European Union presidency. He then goes to Strasbourg to visit the European Parliament, before meeting EU foreign ministers for talks in Luxembourg.
Fact: Lukashenko said "The political battles are over. The country has peace and order like it had before, despite some disturbances the police settled quickly and efficiently."

Fact: Wrong, Luka.

The snowball of democracy, freedom and civil rights has been pushed into motion, and will not stop rolling.